The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Center in October 2017 was 51.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The index remained at 51% for 13 consecutive months. Above the higher level. The decline in the index was mainly due to the change in the pace of production and operation activities of National Day holiday companies. Overall, the economic operation situation remained stable and the quality and efficiency continued to improve.
The growth of supply and demand is balanced. The production index and the new order index have fallen back, but still maintain a relatively high level of around 53%. The two are relatively balanced, and the production index is only 0.5 percentage points higher than the new order index. The production index was 53.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the survey point of view, in order to eliminate the impact of holiday, some enterprises rushed to production before the National Day, and returned to the usual production rhythm after the holiday, which led to a decline in the production index. The new order index was 52.9%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index fell, mainly because the new export order index fell. The new export order index was 50.1%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. From a later perspective, due to the good recovery of the world economy and the proximity of Western Christmas to short-term exports, exports are expected to stabilize. From the domestic point of view, the upcoming “Double 11” and the New Year’s Day Spring Festival major festivals are approaching, which has a pulling effect on the domestic consumption demand.
The industries with high energy consumption and high pollution have dropped significantly. In the past four months, due to the rebound in market demand and rising prices, some high-energy-consumption and high-pollution industries have risen, and the PMI index has risen. However, under the situation of increasing environmental protection, the recovery has gradually weakened. In October, the U-turn turned downwards and the index fell by more than 2 percentage points. The performance of the PMI index in high-energy-consumption and high-pollution industries reflects the remarkable effect of protecting the ecological environment, and also reflects the development and guiding role of the development concept without sacrificing the environment. However, in sharp contrast, the high-tech industry, equipment manufacturing industry, and consumer goods industry have maintained steady and rapid development. The index level is above the overall manufacturing level, and economic development has stable momentum and support.
The accelerated increase in market prices has eased. The purchase price index reversed the upward trend for four consecutive months, down 5 percentage points from the previous month and fell back to 63.4%. The ex-factory price index of the enterprise also fell accordingly, down 4.2 percentage points from the previous month and falling back to 55.2%. From the survey, the number of enterprises reflecting the rise in raw material prices has dropped significantly, and the proportion of surveyed enterprises has fallen below 40%, which is nearly 4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The acceleration of the market price increase will help alleviate inflationary pressures, help correct the distortion of resource allocation, and help maintain economic stability.
The employment situation has remained stable. The employee index was unchanged from the previous month and remained at a relatively high level of over 49% for 10 consecutive months. The trend was the best since 2013. The economy is stable and employment is stable. Judging from the employment situation, the economic operation is in a better period in recent years.